Diamond SharkIngest
Statcast tracking, confirmed lineups, park factors, and a live weather read per game.
Simulate
57 factors and 34+ metrics run 10,000 games per matchup into full outcome distributions.
Price
Model probability is compared to the de-vigged market — the gap is real edge, never a quota.
Self-Correction
Every projection is settled against the result; a drift monitor catches slippage and a nightly retune corrects it.
Adaptive Weighting
Factor importance re-weights as the baseball environment shifts across the season.
Calibration
Do the probabilities match real outcome frequency? Measured continuously, never assumed.
Closing-Line Value
Every result is benchmarked against the closing market price — the industry standard for real signal.
Hits
Modeled off contact quality, matchup, and lineup slot — not last-10 noise.
Total Bases
Power and contact blended; extra-base tails pulled from barrel rate and exit velo.
Home Runs
Barrel rate, park, and pitcher HR/9 into a true long-ball probability.
Hits + Runs + RBIs
A joint distribution across the batter's entire night, not three guesses stapled together.
RBIs & Runs
Runners-on context and lineup protection priced in — not raw rate.
Walks
Plate discipline against pitcher command and zone rate.
Stolen Bases
Jump, catcher pop time, and pitcher hold priced explicitly.
Multi-Hit
2+ hit probability read straight off the full contact distribution.
Pitcher Strikeouts
Whiff rate, opponent chase, and expected batters faced.
Outs Recorded
Projected length off pitch count, efficiency, and the bullpen script.
Earned Runs
Contact quality allowed and sequencing — not just ERA.
Hits & Walks Allowed
Expected contact and free passes against the day's lineup.
Moneyline
Win probability from the simulated score distribution.
Run Line
The -1.5 / +1.5 spread priced off the margin distribution.
Game & Team Totals
Runs from starter, bullpen, lineup, and park — weather-adjusted.
NRFI / YRFI
No-run-first-inning off the starter, top of the order, and park.
Moonshot Money
A dedicated home-run model surfacing the day's best long-ball value.
Combos
Multi-leg tickets priced from joint outcomes — real correlation, not multiplied odds.
Live Re-Score
Lines re-priced in real time as in-game swings open new gaps.
The market sets a price.
We set a probability.
Probability, not a lean
A real number with a distribution behind it — never a vibe or a "confidence level."
De-vigged fair value
We strip the book's margin first, so the edge you see is against true price — not the hold.
Verifiable output
Displayed probability always equals market implied plus edge. You can check the math yourself.
Negative edges shown
When the book's price beats ours, we say so. Honesty is the whole product.
Ranked, never a quota
A rank score surfaces the strongest plays — the engine never forces a pick to fill a slate.
Adversarial by design
Built to beat the market, not to sell you picks. The engine is on your side of the screen.
Matchup Lab
Full pitcher-vs-batter breakdowns — lineup power, bullpen usage, park & weather.
Moonshot Money
The home-run model, ranked — the day's best long-ball probabilities in one view.
Combo Builder
Build multi-leg tickets and watch model probability vs. implied update in real time.
The Scorecard
Full record, win rate, and honest commentary — including the months we ran cold.
Bet Tracker
Auto-graded results and closing-line value, so you know if you're beating the number.
Prop Research
Ranked batter and pitcher leaderboards by contact, power, strikeouts, and run prevention.
Live Tracking
Once games start, follow the pitches, at-bats, and lines update in real time.
Player Search
Jump to any hitter or arm and pull their full model card for tonight.
- The full engine — 10,000-game sim, 57 factors & 34+ Statcast metrics behind every output
- Every market — 15 player props, game lines, NRFI/YRFI, Moonshot & Combos
- The whole toolkit — Matchup Lab, Combo Builder, Prop Research, live tracking & the Scorecard
- Nothing hidden — full track record, negative edges shown, math you can check
iOS & Android. Subscription managed through the App Store or Google Play. For informational and entertainment purposes only.
Built by people who
wanted this to exist.
We spent years looking for a baseball tool this thorough and this honest. It didn't exist — so we built it. Diamond Shark is a quantitative research platform built by a team of Wall Street probability professionals, software engineers, and serious baseball people.
This isn't a chatbot in a baseball skin. Every projection comes from a purpose-built engine — a 10,000-game simulation, 57 probability factors, and 34+ Statcast metrics on every pitcher and batter, every day. Ask a general AI for 19 million probability calculations across a full slate and it simply can't: it hands you a confident paragraph, not a distribution. The math has to be built and run — on real infrastructure, against live Statcast data, every morning. That's the engine. AI checks our work; it doesn't do our work.
The outputs are yours —
and every one is verifiable.
And we don't hide the results. The Scorecard shows the record, the win rate, and the honest commentary — including the stretches the model ran cold. A track record you can't check isn't a track record.